v.19 n. 35 – Released August 25, 2015
This Week’s Headlines:
- July State and Local Employment Report
- SoCal Home Prices and Median Prices in July
- Events of Interest
- September 30: LAEDC Fall Economic Forecast
- October 13: Southern California Visitor Industry Outlook Conference
- October 30: 2015-16 South Bay Economic Forecast Conference
The Employment Development Department (EDD) released the state and local employment reports for the month of July. Total California nonfarm employment increased by 80,600 jobs over the month in seasonally adjusted (SA) terms.
The year-over-year change showed an increase of 494,200 jobs (SA). The equated to a growth rate of 3.2% and exceeded the July national increase of 2.1%. California’s private sector added 468,600 jobs (an increase of 3.5% over the year, while employment in the public sector rose by 1.1% (25,600 jobs).
Industry sector trends were little changed from the past several months. Ten of the 11 super-sectors added jobs over the year to July: construction; manufacturing; trade, transportation and utilities; information; financial activities; professional and business services; educational and health services; leisure and hospitality; other services; and government for a combined gain of 496,500 jobs. Professional and business services posted the largest gain on a numerical basis, adding 156,100 jobs (up 6.4%), while construction claimed the largest gain in percentage terms, increasing by 7.3% or 48,900 jobs.
The only sector to record a decline over the year was mining and logging, down 2,300 jobs, an annual decline of 7.3%.
California’s unemployment rate declined slightly from 6.3% in June to 6.2% in May and was down from the year ago rate of 7.4%. The civilian labor force was unchanged over the month but was up by 1.3% over the year. Over the last 12 months, 236,800 workers have joined California’s labor force.
(Note: With the exception of the Los Angeles unemployment rate, county level numbers are not seasonally adjusted, which means there can be large month-to-month fluctuations in job counts. A truer picture of how local labor markets are faring is revealed by focusing on the year-over-year numbers. Annual trends “correct” for the seasonal factors that influence certain industry sectors over the course of the year.)
- In Los Angeles County, the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate was 7.1%, down from 7.5% in June and below the year ago rate of 8.1%. Total nonfarm employment declined by 32,600 jobs over the month (almost entirely due to a seasonal decline in public education employment) but was up over the year by 107,900 jobs, an increase of 2.5%.
Educational and health services posted the largest year-over-year gain in employment in July with an increase of 26,600 jobs for the largest year-over-year industry increase. Gains in health care and social assistance jobs were responsible for 80% of the increase.
Also recording significant job gains were trade, transportation and utilities (20,800 jobs), and leisure and hospitality (20,100 jobs). Restaurant jobs accounted for 83% of the gains in leisure and hospitality.
Two of the major industry sectors reported year-over-year declines in July: mining and logging (-200 jobs) and manufacturing (-1,300 jobs).
- In July, the unemployment rate in Orange County was 4.7%, up from 4.3% in June but below the year-ago figure of 6.0%. Nonfarm payroll jobs increased by by 11,700 over the month and were up by 49,600 over the year (an increase of 3.3%).
- In the Riverside-San Bernardino area, the unemployment rate in July was 7.1% compared with 6.5% in June but below the year ago rate of 8.9%. The region lost 12,200 nonfarm payroll jobs over the month (due to a seasonal decline in public education employment) but gained 50,300 over the year. This represented an increase of 3.9%.
- In Ventura County, the unemployment rate was 5.9%, down from the year ago estimate of 7.0%. Total nonfarm employment fell by 4,600 jobs compared with June (due to a seasonal decline in public education employment) but was up over the year by 3,100 jobs (1.1%).
Summary: California added 80,600 jobs last month, the largest gain of any state and well ahead of Texas and Florida, which each added just over 30,000 jobs. In yearly terms, California added nearly half a million jobs with solid gains occurring locally in Orange County, the Inland Empire and in Los Angeles, which reported the largest annual job increase on over a year. (Kimberly Ritter-Martinez)
Source: California EDD
Southern California home sales increased over the year in July, rising by 16.9% to 24,235 units (new and resale houses and condominiums). Although sales fell slightly (-0.6%) over the month, the decline between June and July is typically much larger, averaging 6.1%. Sales have now risen on a year-over-year basis for six months and are approaching what might be considered a normal level. Last month’s sales were just 4.0% below average for the month of July, while in July 2014 sales were 18% below average. Cash, investor and distressed sales are continuing to trend down so that means more traditional buyers are jumping back into the market.
The median price across Southern California increased by 5.5% over the year to $438,000. The median price has now risen for 40 consecutive months and was the second highest (coming in just behind June 2015), since October 2007 when it was $445,000. With prices continuing to rise, the share of home sales priced above $500,000 is also increasing – 40.7% compared with a 37.7% share in July 2014.
Rising demand for homes is a result of the confluence of job growth, low mortgage rates and more confident consumers. Concerns about the Fed moving to increase interest rates also may have prompted some buyers to get off the fence, and now that eight years have passed since the housing bust, former homeowners caught up in the first wave of foreclosures may be returning to homeownership. (Kimberly Ritter-Martinez)
Wednesday, September 30, 2015: LAEDC Fall Economic Forecast
Location: Omni Los Angeles Downtown Hotel; 251 South Olive St., Los Angeles 90012
Join the LAEDC on September 30th, 2015 for our Fall Economic Forecast, featuring long-range analysis and the topic “From Boomers to Millennials: The Future of the Urban Environment”.
Tuesday, October 13, 2015: Southern California Visitor Outlook Conference
Location: Sheraton Los Angeles Downtown Hotel; 711 South Hope St., Los Angeles 90017
Please join us for the 27th Annual Southern California Visitor Industry Outlook Conference to be held at The Sheraton Los Angeles Downtown Hotel. Hear from noted experts, representing a range of travel sectors, offer their best assessment of the southern California economic situation and how it may affect your business.
All attendees receive an electronic link of PKF Consulting’s 2016 Lodging Forecast and will be able to enjoy a continental breakfast buffet before the conference begins.
Friday, October 30, 2015: 2015-16 South Bay Economic Forecast Conference
Location: California State University Dominguez Hills, Loker Student Union/Grand Ballroom, 1000 E. Victoria St., Carson 90747
The South Bay region has the second highest concentration of Fortune 500s in the State of California. As technology continues to rapidly evolve, how does that change the platform for the way companies conduct business in the South Bay region and what will it mean to your business? What is the next “big idea” in technology and how will that affect your industry?
The CSUDH South Bay Economic Forecast offers a focused look at the key economic drivers, employment trends, and the impacts and opportunities of a region in transition. Gain valuable insight and ideas about potentially lucrative industries in the South Bay region: aerospace, goods movement, creative industries, higher education, manufacturing, retail trade, healthcare, leisure and hospitality, real estate, digital media / entertainment, energy, and sports management.
Who Should Attend: Business Leaders in the community, civic leaders, small business owners, major corporations and South Bay residents.