April was a decent month in many parts of the retail world but not all. Total retail and food services sales were down by -0.2% last month, following a revised increase of +0.2% in March. However, eight of thirteen sectors reported higher sales in April than in March. Leading the parade were sales of building material & garden equipment & supplies dealers (whose receipts rose by 1.9%), electronics & appliance stores (up by 1.4%), and food services & drinking places (+0.9%). They were followed by apparel & accessory stores (up by 0.7%), food & beverage stores and general merchandise stores (both +0.5%). Sales of the other “plus” sectors rose by less than +0.5% over the month. Three sectors reported over-the-month sales declines: motor vehicle & parts dealers (-2.8%), miscellaneous store retailers (-1.2%), and gasoline stations (surprisingly, down by -0.4%). Within the general merchandise sector, department store sales edged down by -0.1%, while sales of other general merchandisers (including warehouse clubs & supercenters) were up by a solid 0.8%.
Year-to-date, total retail & food services sales increased by 3.5% compared to January-April 2007, and were up by 5.3% excluding automotive. Gasoline stations were the growth leaders, with sales up by +20.8% over the year due to higher prices. Food & beverage stores occupied the number two spot (with sales up by +6.1%; again due to higher prices), while nonstore retailers (mostly electronic shopping and catalog mail order houses) were number three (sales up by +5.5%). Sales of three retail sectors have lagged significantly thus far in 2008: furniture & home furnishings stores (down by -4.3% over the year), building material & garden equipment & supplies dealers (-3.5%), and motor vehicle & parts dealers (with a -3.2% decline). Again, the general merchandise sector was split, with department store sales down by -3.4% year-to-date, while the remainder of the sector was up by 8.4%. (Nancy D. Sidhu)
PR : http://www.census.gov/marts/www/marts_current.pdf
The U.S. Census Bureau reported last week that U.S. housing starts increased by 8.2% in April to 1,032,000 units (seasonally adjusted annual rate or SAAR), continuing to hover at the one million-plus-or-minus pace visible since December 2007. Construction was started on 692,000 single-family homes in April, down by -1.7% from March—and the lowest level for single-family starts since January 1991. In the volatile multi-family sector (apartments and condominiums), some 340,000 units were started last month (+36.0%), reversing last month’s big decline (-35.1%).
Total housing starts peaked back in January, 2006 at 2.27 million units, according to the Census Bureau. Starts reached a new low for this downturn in March (at 954,000 units); April was down by -51% from the peak quarter (2006q1). Single-family starts were down by an astonishing -61%, while multi-family starts were “only” -10% below the peak.
The underlying fundamentals in the housing industry continue to be negative. The latest monthly survey of homebuilder attitudes taken by the NAHB (National Association of Home Builders) continued near the record low level set in December (data go back to 1985). About five-sixths of the builders reported slow sales, and the same fraction complained about low buyer traffic. Expectations for future sales fell back in May to the dismal levels of previous months.
Most builders and industry observers expect housing construction activity to move down some more from here. They disagree though on how much farther starts will fall and how long it will take until the bottom is reached. The “optimists” expect the trough will be reached sometime this year, while the “pessimists” forecast declining starts through 2008 with the bottom coming in 2009. (Nancy D. Sidhu)
PR : http://www.census.gov/const/newresconst.pdf
The April jobs data have been released by the Employment Development Department, and they had a touch of better news as well as some disturbing news. For the state, seasonally adjusted nonfarm employment declined by -800 jobs from March to April, after a drop of -2,100 jobs from February to March. Over the year to April, there was a gain of +0.2% or +23,400 jobs.
Looking at the unadjusted industry detail, the largest gains over the year to April were in: government (+48,400 jobs); health services (+43,000 jobs); professional, scientific & technical services (+26,600 jobs); and leisure & hospitality (+20,700 jobs). Job losses were recorded in: construction (-80,600 jobs); finance & insurance (-32,100 jobs); and manufacturing (-19,400 jobs).
The touch of better news was found in Los Angeles County, where nonfarm employment rose by 0.1% over the year to April (or by 2,200 jobs), after five consecutive months of year-to-year declines. The biggest gains over the year to April were in: health services (+9,800 jobs); government (+7,500 jobs); and leisure & hospitality services (+5,700 jobs). The biggest losses over the year came in: construction (-10,300 jobs); finance & insurance (-6,800 jobs); and manufacturing (-5,100 jobs). The effect of the Writer’s Guild strike seem to be dissipating, Year-to-year jobs losses in motion picture production were significant in January and February, but by April had narrowed to a loss of -1,900 jobs.
In Orange County, total nonfarm employment fell by -1.3% over the year or by -19,700 jobs. The largest employment gains came in: government (+3,100 jobs); health services (+2,000 jobs); and professional, scientific & technical services (+1,600 jobs). The largest losses over the year were in: finance & insurance (-15,900 jobs); construction (-4,200 jobs); and manufacturing (-3,800 jobs). The County’s leisure & hospitality sector was also in the loss column, down by -600 jobs over the year.
The Riverside-San Bernardino area saw nonfarm employment drop by -1.4% over the year to April, or by 17,900 jobs. Notable gains over the year occurred in government (+5,900 jobs) and health services (+3,900 jobs). Losses came in construction (-15,900 jobs); manufacturing (-6,200 jobs); and retailing (-3,200 jobs).
San Diego County recorded a modest gain in nonfarm employment during April, rising by 0.2% or 2,700 jobs. The largest gains over the year came in leisure & hospitality services (+4,800 jobs); government (+3,500 jobs); and professional, scientific & technical services (+2,700 jobs). The largest losses were in construction (-7,900 jobs); finance & insurance (-3,200 jobs); and real estate (-2,100 jobs). The County’s manufacturing sector seems to be leveling off (only -100 jobs were lost over the year), thanks to some tasty defense contracts.
Ventura County’s economy continued to get hammered in April, with nonfarm employment down by -1.5% over the year or by 4,300 jobs. Gains came in transportation/warehousing (+600 jobs) and health services (+500 jobs). Losses came in manufacturing (-1,800 jobs) and construction (-1,700 jobs).
In the Bay Area, the employment picture remained mixed in April. The San Francisco area set the pace, with a gain of 2.3% or 22,700 jobs over the year. The San Jose area recorded a 1.3% increase or 12,100 jobs. However, the Oakland area continued to struggle, with a decline of -0.6% or 5,800 jobs over the year to April. . (Jack Kyser)
California data: http://www.calmis.cahwnet.gov/file/lfmonth/cal$PDS.pdf
LA County data: http://www.calmis.cahwnet.gov/file/lfmonth/la$PDS.pdf
Orange County data: http://www.calmis.cahwnet.gov/file/lfmonth/oran$PDS.pdf
Riverside-San Bernardino data: http://www.calmis.cahwnet.gov/file/lfmonth/rive$PDS.pdf
Ventura County data: http://www.calmis.cahwnet.gov/file/lfmonth/vent$PDS.pdf
Oakland data: http://www.calmis.ca.gov/file/lfmonth/oak$pds.pdf
San Francisco data: http://www.calmis.ca.gov/file/lfmonth/sanf$pds.pdf
San Jose data: http://www.calmis.ca.gov/file/lfmonth/sjos$pds.pdf
The California Employment Development Department (EDD) released unemployment figures for April last Friday. Los Angeles County’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate rose to 5.9% from 5.8% in March, 5.3% in February, and from 4.9% twelve months earlier. March was the eleventh consecutive month the County’s unemployment rate increased over the previous year and was the highest rate since January 2005 (also 5.9%).
California’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate rose to 6.2% in April, unchanged from March but up from 5.7% in February, and from 5.2% from a year earlier. The U.S. unemployment rate was 5.0% in April, down from 5.1% in March, but from 4.8% in February, and 4.5% in April 2007.
The not seasonally adjusted five-county Los Angeles area unemployment rate rose by +1.2 percentage points in April (to 5.7%) from a year earlier. Joblessness increased by +1.7 percentage points in Riverside County (to 7.1%), by +1.5 percentage points in San Bernardino County (to 6.6%), by +1.1 percentage points in Los Angeles County (to 5.7%), and by +0.9 percentage points in both Orange and Ventura counties (to 4.4% and 5.2% respectively).
San Diego County’s unadjusted unemployment rate increased to 5.0% in April, up by +0.8 percentage points from 12 months earlier.
The Bay Area’s combined unemployment rate in April (also not seasonally adjusted) increased by +0.7 percentage points to 5.0%. Joblessness increased by +0.9 percentage points in the Oakland-Fremont-Hayward Metropolitan Division (to 5.3%), by +0.7 percentage point in the San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara Metropolitan Statistical Area (to 5.2%), and by +0.5 percentage points in the San Francisco-San Mateo-Redwood City Metropolitan Division (to 4.2%). (Eduardo J. Martinez)
Seasonally adjusted employment table
| Area | Apr08 | Mar08 | Feb08 | Apr07 | Change Since Last Month | Change Since Last Year |
| United States | 5.0% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 4.5% | -0.1 | 0.5 |
| California | 6.2% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 0.0 | 1.0 |
| Los Angeles Co. | 5.9% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 0.1 | 1.0 |
Not Seasonally adjusted employment table
| Area | Apr08 | Mar08 | Feb08 | Apr07 | Change Since Last Month | Change Since Last Year |
| United States | 5.2% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 4.5% | 0.0 | 0.7 |
| California | 6.1% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 5.0% | -0.1 | 1.1 |
| Los Angeles Co. | 5.7% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 4.6% | -0.1 | 1.1 |
| Orange Co. | 4.4% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 3.5% | -0.2 | 0.9 |
| Riverside-San Bernardino Cos. | 6.8% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 5.2% | -0.3 | 1.6 |
| Ventura Co. | 5.2% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 4.3% | -0.4 | 0.9 |
| San Diego Co. | 5.0% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 4.2% | -0.3 | 0.8 |
| Oakland MD | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 4.4% | -0.2 | 0.9 |
| San Francisco MD | 4.2% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 3.7% | -0.2 | 0.5 |
| San Jose MSA | 5.2% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 4.5% | -0.3 | 0.7 |
PR: http://www.edd.ca.gov/urate200710.pdf
Data: http://www.calmis.cahwnet.gov/file/lfmonth/CalPR.pdf
It was more of the same during April at the ports of Long Beach and Los Angeles. The total number of containers handled at the two ports during April declined by -7.1% to just under 1.2 million TEUs. The import container count was down by -9.4% over the year, while the export boom continued – rising by 27.2% over the year to April. Long Beach recorded a zesty 35.0% gain. . (Jack Kyser)
Port of Long Beach PR: http://www.polb.com/economics/stats/latest_teus.asp
Port of Los Angeles PR: http://portoflosangeles.org/maritime/stats.asp
International trade values are mirroring container flows. At the Los Angeles Customs District in March, export values rose by 7.6% over the year, while import values inched up by 1.2%. Total two-way trade at Los Angeles totaled $28.5 billion during March, a 3.3% gain over the year. For the first three months of 2008, total trade value was up by 3.9% to $83.8 billion.
At the San Francisco Customs District, March export values were up by 6.8% over the year, but import values declined by -1.2%. The month’s total was up by 2.0% to $9.9 billion, while the three month total was up by 5.6% over the year to $28.3 billion.
The San Diego Customs District had a poor March, with export values down by -1.4% while import values inched up by only0.6%. The month’s total two-way trade value was unchanged at $4.5 billion, while the three month value was up by 3.0% over the comparable 2007 period to $13.0 billion. . (Jack Kyser)
Wednesday, May 21
Los Angeles Chapter of the National Association for Business Economics "
The Economic Outlook for the United States and California: Slow Growth or Recession?" with Ross DeVol of Milken Institute. To register and for more information www.lanabe.org
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