UPDATE:  A POSSIBLE SETTLEMENT ON THE WGA STRIKE?

Reports point to a possible settlement of the WGA strike, which started November 5, 2007.  This would allow a “real” Academy Awards event.  Using data from the AMPTP, wages lost since the start of the strike by members of the WGA totaled $257.6 million through February 3, while members of IATSE (the below the line workers) have lost $444.1 million.  The direct and indirect wage loss is about $1.96 billion so far.

While a WGA settlement would be good news, SAG is seriously talking about a strike when their contract expires June 30.  Oh well.  (Jack Kyser)

 

FOURTH QUARTER 2007 ECONOMIC REPORT CARD

The U.S. economy grew by 0.6% last quarter according to “advance” estimates of the Bureau of Economic Analysis.  This pace was well below the 4.9% registered in 3q2007 and the slowest pace since first quarter 2007 and before that, the fourth quarter 2002.  [All percentage changes in this article are seasonally adjusted annual rates and adjusted for changes in inflation.]

Consumer spending for goods and services was the biggest positive contributor to last quarter’s performance, adding 1.4 percentage points to the economy’s overall growth rate.  Three other sectors also generated significant positive contributions.  Business spending for plant, equipment and software added 0.8 percentage points to the fourth quarter’s growth rate.  Government purchases contributed 0.5 percentage points, and net exports of goods and services (gross exports minus gross imports) added 0.4 percentage points to quarterly growth.

On the downside, residential investment spending subtracted 1.2 percentage points from the fourth quarter’s economic growth rate, the eighth quarter of negative performance.  And U.S. nonfarm business firms reduced inventories last quarter, which pulled down the economic growth rate by another 1.2 percentage points.

The BEA called this an “advance” report because all of the figures are still preliminary.  When preparing its estimates, the BEA did not know for sure what happened to foreign trade, inventories, or construction in December and had to make some guesses, er-assumptions, which may or may not prove correct.  Also, the information on consumer spending during December is still incomplete.  This data could make a difference.  We’ll get a more complete picture of the fourth quarter economy next month.  However, the main headline—slow economic growth boosted by healthy spending by consumers, businesses, governments, and foreign trade but held back by the steep decline in housing and conservative business inventory practices—seems unlikely to change.   (Nancy D. Sidhu)

PR:  http://bea.gov/newsreleases/national/gdp/2008/pdf/gdp407a.pdf

 

JANUARY U.S. LABOR MARKET REPORT

According to the latest U.S. Labor Market Report, released Friday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), the U.S. employment situation showed little change in January.  The Bureau’s survey of employers reported that total nonfarm job counts edged down by -17,000 workers last month, the worst showing since August 2003.  Over the past three months, job growth in the U.S. has increased by 241,000 workers (or about 80,000 per month). 

The BLS completed its annual comprehensive revisions this month, which lowered total employment in December by a combined -376,000 jobs.  Job counts grew by a revised average of 95,000 employees per month in 2007, down from 175,000 workers per month during 2006.

Government payrolls shrank by -18,000 employees last month.  This decrease was due to lower job counts in state government education.  In the private sector, only two of the ten major industry groups reported higher job counts in January.  The “plus” industries were education & health services (up by +47,000 jobs over the month) and leisure & hospitality (+19,000 jobs), and.  The biggest payroll declines were reported by manufacturing (down by -28,000 jobs over the month), construction (-27,000 jobs), and professional & business services (-11,000 jobs, with temporary help services cutting -9,000 workers).

Compared with 12 months ago, nonfarm employers have added 994,000 workers to their payrolls, an increase of about 0.7%.  Six private-sector industry groups reported higher payrolls over the year.  The biggest job gainers were education & health services (+553,000 jobs), leisure & hospitality (+363,000 jobs), and professional & business services (+290,000 jobs, but with temporary help firms down by -87,000 workers).  The construction and manufacturing sectors continued in the red, falling by -278,000 jobs and -269,000 jobs respectively compared to January 2007.  Note that residential construction employment has declined by -244,000 jobs over the year.   Payrolls also were down in nonresidential and heavy construction, falling by –13,000 and -21,000 workers respectively over the past twelve months.

According to the BLS survey of households, the U.S. unemployment rate edged down to 4.9% in January from 5.0% in December.  The nation’s jobless rate was 4.6% in January 2007; so joblessness has risen by just 0.3 percentage points over the past 12 months.  Among the major demographic groups, the jobless rate for adult women has risen by +0.2 percentage points, while the rate for adult men was up by +0.3 percentage points and the rate for teenagers increased by +3.0 percentage points over the year.  Meanwhile, the unemployment rate for Asians showed no change compared to rising joblessness among whites (+0.3 percentage points), Hispanic workers (+0.6 percentage points), and blacks (+1.2 percentage point).

The nation’s jobless rate has been moving slowly but irregularly in an upward direction since March 2007.  On the employment front, job counts are still rising in most sectors of private industry, especially education & health care (which seem to grow no matter what happens in other parts of the economy).  On the downside, employment is falling in those distressed sectors tied to housing construction, automotive and apparel/textiles manufacturing, and mortgage finance.  These sectors lost -39,000 jobs in January and have shed -500,000 workers over the past 12 months (a decline of -7.0%).  Labor markets in the U.S. didn’t look particularly strong in January, but it’s too soon to know whether the ongoing weakness of the industries in distress will spill over into other sectors of the economy.   (Nancy D. Sidhu)

PR:  http://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf

 

CALIFORNIA RESALE HOUSING ACTIVITY CONTINUED TO FALL IN DECEMBER

According to the California Association of Realtors (CAR), California’s resale housing market continued to tumble in December, 2007.  Unit sales declined by 33.4% over the year to December, while the median price fell by 16.5% to $475,460.  The CAR’s Unsold Inventory Index stood at 14.5 months compared with 5.9 months in December 2006 (this is the number of months required  to deplete the supply of homes on the market at current sales rates).

The CAR also released preliminary 2007 averages.  The statewide median price slipped by 0.3% to $558,100 during 2007, while unit sales dropped by 26.0% to 353,290 homes.  The state’s median price evidently peaked in April 2007 at $597,640.  The CAR will release regional annual averages on February 22.

Los Angeles County saw unit sales decline by 41.5% over the year to December.  The median price dropped by 16.9% to $487,190.  The County’s median price evidently peaked in February 2007 at $616,230.  Orange County saw December sales drop by 32.0%, while the median price fell by 7.9% to $638,390.  The County’s median price seems to have peaked in April 2007 at $747,260.

In the Riverside-San Bernardino area, unit sales declined by 36.7% over the year to December, while the median price fell by 20.9% to $324,510.  The peak price here seems to have been $415,170, as recorded in January 2007.  San Diego County saw unit sales fall by 37.1% over the year to December, while the median price dropped by 15.4% to $495,500.  The peak price month here seems to have been May 2006, with a reading of $622,380.  Rounding out the Southern California news, Ventura County saw unit sales fall by 38.2% over the year to December, while the median price moved down by 9.9% to $604,730.  The peak price of $710,410 was evidently reached in May 2007.

The December numbers for the Bay Area made a little better reading, at least for prices.  In San Francisco Bay unit sales fell by 38.1% while the median price eased down by 0.2% to $724,800.  In the San Jose area, unit sales dropped by 39.9% over the year to December, but the median price rose by 3.4% to $800,000.   (Jack Kyser)

PR:  http://www.car.org/index.php?id=MzgyNTA

 

LOS ANGELES OFF-STUDIO LOT PRODUCTION ACTIVITY DECLINED IN 2007

Film LA Inc., which tracks off-studio lot location production activity in City of Los Angeles, unincorporated areas of the County, and in 3 smaller cities, just released their 4th quarter and year 2007 production day totals.  During the 4th quarter location production days for features fell by 4.0%, while for the year 2007 production days declined by 6.4% to 8,247 days.  Television location production activity rose by 3.6% during the 4th quarter and was up by 12.9% for all of 2007 to 23,315 location production days.  Commercials saw location filming activity fall by 10.8% during the 4th quarter, and slip by 0.2% for all of 2007 to 6,730 days.

Total off-studio lot production activity for all of 2007 fell by 0.9% to 54,871 days.  (Jack Kyser)

PR:  http://www.eidc.com/html/data.html

 

CORRECTION:  RIVERSIDE COUNTY NONRESIDENTIAL PERMIT VALUES

In Riverside County, the office permit values during 2007 were up by 16.7% to $224.6 million. Retail also increased, up by 4.1% to $387.5 million.  While, industrial permits values fell by 47.3% to $152.0 million, and hotels dropped by 24.4% to $19.0 million.

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