The November report from the California
Employment Development
Department continued to point to a slowing economy. Just 900 jobs
were
created from October to November (seasonally adjusted). The
September-to-October decline was revised down to 13,500 jobs.
Over the
year to November, the state added a total of 85,700 nonfarm jobs.
Back
in January, the gain over the year was 245,500 jobs.
By industry sector in the state (unadjusted),
the largest gains
over the year were in government (+45,700 jobs), health services
(+41,100 jobs), professional-scientific & technical services
(+29,000 jobs), and leisure & hospitality services (+28,000
jobs).
Job losses over the year came in construction (-35,200 jobs), retailing
(-18,200 jobs), finance & insurance (-17,300 jobs), and
manufacturing
(-14,400 jobs).
Los Angeles County’s nonfarm workforce
increased by 0.7% or 30,400
jobs over the year to November. Increases came in health services
(+8,800 jobs), leisure & hospitality services (+8,700 jobs),
government (+7,900 jobs), and private education (+7,000 jobs). In
the
loss column were manufacturing (-6,100 jobs), construction (-4,300
jobs), and retailing (-4,000 jobs). We were watching the motion
picture & sound recording job numbers, since the Writer’s Guild
went on strike November 5th. Surprise! The industry’s employment
count
increased by 1,100 jobs over the month and by 5,300 over the
year.
Most of the writers are independent contractors (and not counted as
employed), while scripted TV series hadn’t run out of scripts.
Orange County is in an employment
recession. It has now recorded
three consecutive months of over-the-year job losses, with November
nonfarm employment down by 2,200 jobs. Increases came in
government
(+3,200 jobs), health services (+2,800 jobs), and leisure &
hospitality services (+1,700 jobs). The largest losses over the
year
were in finance & insurance (-8,100 jobs) and construction (-3,700
jobs).
Employment growth is even slowing in the
Riverside-San Bernardino
area, with the November nonfarm job total up by 3.1% over the year (in
the April through September period, the percentage gains were
stronger). The largest increases over the year were in leisure
&
hospitality services (+5,900 jobs), retail (+5,500 jobs), health
services (+5,000 jobs), and administrative services (+4,400
jobs). The
area’s construction sector was still positive, adding 1,400 jobs over
the year to November.
San Diego County saw a 1.0% or a 13,300 job
increase over the year
to November. The largest gains were in professional, scientific
&
technical services, and leisure & hospitality services, each adding
4,100 jobs. Health services in the County were up by 3,700 jobs
over
the year. In the loss column were construction (-5,500 jobs), and
real
estate (-1,300 jobs).
Nonfarm employment in Ventura County continued
to amble forward in
November, with a 0.6% or 1,700 job gain. The biggest increases
over
the year came in retailing (+1,200 jobs) and health services (+1,000
jobs). Construction was down by - 1,500 jobs.
November employment trends were mixed in the
Bay Area. The
Oakland metro area recorded just a 0.3% increase (or 3,700 jobs) over
the year. The San Francisco metro area turned in a better
performance,
rising by 1.5% or 14,400 jobs over the year to November. The San
Jose
area saw a 1.3% or an 11,700 job gain over the year. (Jack
Kyser)
Not
seasonally adjusted Nov.'07
Oct.'07 Sep'07 Nov.'06 M/M
Chg Y/Y Chg Y/Y %Chg
California
15,385.6 15,334.6 15,293.9
15,299.0 +51.0
+86.6 +0.6%
Los Angeles
Co.
4,175.0
4,158.4 4,143.3 4,144.6 +16.6
+30.4 +0.7%
Orange
Co.
1,532.9 1,531.0
1,525.4 1,535.1
+1.9 -2.2 -0.1%
Riverside-San Bernardino
1,329.5 1,320.7
1,319.3 1,289.9
+8.8 +39.6 +3.1%
Ventura
Co.
302.5 300.6
300.2 300.8
+1.9 +1.7 +0.6%
San Diego
Co.
1,324.5 1,319.1
1,315.4 1,311.2
+5.4 +13.3 +1.0%
San Francisco
MSA
994.1
989.5 986.3
979.7
+4.6 +14.4 +1.5%
Oakland
MSA
1,064.9 1,062.8
1,059.2 1,061.2
+2.1 +3.7 +0.3%
San Jose
MSA
916.7 914.9
906.9 905.0
+1.8 +11.7 +1.3%
California data: http://www.calmis.cahwnet.gov/file/lfmonth/cal$PDS.pdf
LA County data: http://www.calmis.cahwnet.gov/file/lfmonth/la$PDS.pdf
Orange County data: http://www.calmis.cahwnet.gov/file/lfmonth/oran$PDS.pdf
Riverside-San Bernardino data: http://www.calmis.cahwnet.gov/file/lfmonth/rive$PDS.pdf
Ventura County data: http://www.calmis.cahwnet.gov/file/lfmonth/vent$PDS.pdf
The California Employment Development
Department (EDD) released
November unemployment estimates last week. Seasonally adjusted,
the
Los Angeles County unemployment rate was 5.3%, up from 5.1% in both
October and September, and up from 4.4% a year earlier. November
was
the sixth consecutive month that the County’s unemployment rate
increased over the year. Last month’s year-over-year 0.9
percentage
point increase in the County’s unemployment rate was the largest since
July 2002 (which was up by 1.0 percentage point).
California’s seasonally adjusted jobless rate
for last month was
5.6%, unchanged from both October and September, and up from 4.7% a
year earlier. Los Angeles County’s adjusted unemployment rate has
remained below or at the state rate for 20 of the last 21 months.
By
way of comparison, the seasonally adjusted U.S. unemployment rate was
4.7% in November, unchanged from both October and September, and up
from 4.5% a year earlier.
The combined five-county area unemployment
rate rose by +0.9
percentage point from November 2006 (to 5.2%). The jobless rate
increased by +1.2 percentage points in Riverside County (to 6.4%), by
+1.1 percentage points in San Bernardino County (to 5.7%), by +0.9
percentage points in Ventura County (to 5.4%), and +0.8 percentage
points in Orange County (to 4.2%). The seasonally unadjusted
unemployment rate in Los Angeles County increased by +1.0 percentage
point over the last 12 months to 5.2%.
San Diego’s unemployment rate was 4.8% in
October, up by +0.8 percentage point from a year earlier.
The Bay Area's combined unemployment rate
(seasonally unadjusted)
increased by +0.6 percentage points to 4.7% in November. Over the
last
12 months, joblessness increased by +0.7 percentage points in the
Oakland-Fremont-Hayward Metropolitan Division (to 4.9%), by +0.6
percentage points in the San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara Metropolitan
Statistical Area (to 5.0%), and by +0.4 percentage points in the San
Francisco-San Mateo-Redwood City Metropolitan Division (to 4.1%).
(Eduardo
J. Martinez)
Seasonally
adjusted Nov.'07 Oct.'07 Sep.'07
Nov.'06 M/M Chg Y/Y Chg
U.S.
average
4.7% 4.7% 4.7%
4.5% +0.0 +0.2
California
5.6% 5.6% 5.6%
4.7% +0.0 +0.9
Los Angeles
County
5.3% 5.1% 5.1%
4.4% +0.2 +0.9
Not
seasonally adjusted Nov.'07 Oct.'07 Sep.'07
Nov.'06 M/M Chg Y/Y Chg
U.S.
average
4.4% 4.3% 4.5%
4.1% +0.1 +0.3
California
5.6% 5.4% 5.4%
4.6% +0.2 +1.0
Los Angeles
Co.
5.2% 5.0% 5.2%
4.2% +0.2 +1.0
Orange
Co.
4.2% 4.2% 4.2%
3.4% +0.0 +0.8
Riverside Co.
6.4%
6.5% 6.5% 5.2%
-0.1 +1.7
San
Bernardino Co.
5.7% 5.7% 5.6%
4.6% +0.0 +1.1
Ventura
Co.
5.4% 5.2% 5.3%
4.1% +0.2 +1.3
San Diego
Co.
4.8% 4.8% 4.8%
4.0% +0.0 +0.8
San Francisco MD
4.1% 4.2% 4.2%
3.7% -0.1 +0.4
Oakland MD
4.9% 4.9% 4.9%
4.2% +0.0 +0.7
San Jose
MSA
5.0% 4.9% 5.0%
4.4% +0.1 +0.6
The October data from PKF Consulting revealed a still healthy hotel sector in Southern California. In Los Angeles County, the occupancy rate was 82.7% compared with 78.9% last year. Better yet, the average daily room rate (ADR) rose by 11.7% to $163.05. Nine areas in the County had November occupancy rates of 80% or better, with the Airport (88.7%) and Hollywood (87.0%) leading the parade. The highest ADR was found again in Beverly Hills, at $401.44 which was up by a zesty 13.4% over the year to October.
Orange County’s October occupancy rate was
75.7% compared with
73.6% last year. The ADR increased by 8.7% to $150.86. By
area, the
highest occupancy rate was Anaheim’s 79.5%. The highest ADR was
South
Orange County’s $210.72, which was up by 3.8% over the year.
At first blush, San Diego County’s October
hotel numbers looked a
little flaccid, but remember the wild fires. The occupancy rate
was
77.0%, down from 78.5% a year ago. The ADR was up by 2.6% to
$173.59.
The highest occupancy rate was found in Mission Valley, at 82.1%.
The
highest ADR was La Jolla’s $251.00, which was up a lackluster 1.0%. (Jack
Kyser)
International trade values were mixed at the state’s three customs districts during the month of October. At Los Angeles, there was a 15.1% increase in the value of exports, while imports rose by a more modest 4.3%. Total two-way trade value was up by 7.1% over the year to $32.9 billion, a new peak. The 10-month trade total was up by 5.7% to $$289.2 billion.
At the San Francisco district, export values
increased by 9.6%,
but import values declined by 0.8% over the year to October.
Total
two-way trade value was up by 3.0% to $9.8 billion. The 10-month
total
was ahead of the comparable 2006 period by 1.0% to $93.2 billion.
At the San Diego district, export values in
October rose by 3.7%,
while imports moved up by 8.4%. The month’s total increased by
7.0%
over the year. The 10-month total was up by 6.9% to $44.8
billion. (Jack
Kyser)
The November report from the California Association of Realtors (CAR) revealed no change in trend. Unit sales in the state were down BY 36.2% over the year, while the median price declined by 11.9% to $488,640. The unsold inventory was 15.3 months, compared with 6.4 months a year ago. The CAR noted that the upper and middle tiers of the state’s resale housing market continued to be bedeviled by difficulties in obtaining jumbo mortgage loans.
In Los Angeles County during November, unit sales fell by 36.5%, while
the median price declined by 11.8% to $520,960. In Orange County,
unit
sales were down by 36.8%, while the median price fell by 5.4% to
$520,960. In the Riverside-San Bernardino area, unit sales
dropped by
43.2%, and the median price declined by 14.3% to $344,140.
November
unit sales in San Diego County were off by 26.2%, and the median price
was down by 7.3% to $535,780. Ventura County saw a 55.3% drop in
unit
sales, while the median price declined by 6.1% to $623,510.
In the Bay Area, “San Francisco Bay” saw unit sales decline by 35.4%
over the year to November, but the median price rose by 7.3% to
$793,930. The trend in the San Jose area was the same, unit
sales
down by 39.2% and the median price up by 10.3% to $855,000. (Jack
Kyser)
The U.S. Census Bureau reported last week that U.S. housing starts declined by -3.7% in November to 1.19 million units (seasonally adjusted annual rate or SAAR), after rising by +4.2% in October. Activity had plunged by -12.2% in September, reflecting turmoil in the primary and secondary mortgage markets. Construction was started on about 829,000 single-family homes in November, down by -5.4% from October—and the lowest level for single-family starts since April 1991. In the multi-family sector (apartments and condominiums), some 358,000 units were started last month, up just a smidge (or 0.6%) from 356,000 units in October.
Total housing starts peaked back in January,
2006 at 2.29 million
units, according to the Census Bureau. Starts reached another new
low
for this downturn in September, and as of November were down by -44%
from the peak quarter. Single-family and multi-family starts were
down
by -53% and -5% respectively.
The underlying fundamentals in the housing
industry continue to be
negative. The latest monthly survey of homebuilder attitudes
taken by
the NAHB (National Association of Home Builders) continued at the
record low level set in September and October (data go back to
1985).
About four-fifths of the builders reported slow sales, and 86%
complained about lower buyer traffic. Expectations for future
sales
also remained dismal.
Lenders’ stricter standards for granting all
types of mortgages
haven’t helped the situation. And lenders are being hindered by
the
lack of buying interest in the secondary market, which has contracted a
bad case of “subprime anxiety.” As a result, it’s become harder
and
harder for would-be homebuyers to find subprime and jumbo mortgages at
favorable rates. Most builders and industry observers expect
housing
construction activity to move down some more from here. They
disagree
though on how much farther starts will fall and how long it will take
until the bottom is reached. The “optimists” expect the trough
will be
reached in the spring, while the “pessimists” forecast declining starts
throughout 2008 with a bottom in 2009. (Nancy D. Sidhu)
The California Department of Finance has just released their new county/state population estimates for July 1, 2007. The state’s population increased by almost 1.2% or 438,455 persons over 2005, moving the total to 37,771,431 residents. This continued the pattern of slower growth in evidence since 2003. Natural increase (the excess of births over deaths) accounted for 327,285 of the “new” people in California, while net migration (foreign immigration and net domestic migration) added 111,170 more new residents.
The largest population increase in the state
between 2006 and 2007
came in Riverside County, up by 66,141 persons to a July 1, 2007 total
of 2,070,315 residents. Much of this growth was fueled by the
availability of low cost housing (often purchased with a subprime
loan). Next was Los Angeles County, growing by 46,608 persons to
a
total of 10,294,280 residents. The County recorded a natural increase
of 91,679, but had a net out-migration of - 45,071 persons. San
Diego
County was ranked third, with an increase of 42,211 residents, moving
the total to 3,120,088 persons. Its net migration was positive,
by
16,049 people.
Fourth in the state in population growth
during the 2006-2007
period was Santa Clara County, up by 29,904 people to a total of
1,820,176 residents. Net migration here was also positive, at 12,011
persons. Fifth was San Bernardino County, with an increase of
28,063
people moving its total to 2,039,467 residents. Net migration was
modest, just 4,939 people. Orange County ranked sixth in the
state
with an increase of 22,842 people, moving the July, 2007 count to
3,098,183 people. It had net out-migration, losing 4,351 persons.
Finally, Ventura County recorded an increase
of 7,747 new
residents, moving its total population to 826,550 persons. It
registered a net in-migration of 425 people.
Between the 2000 Census and July 1,2007,
Southern California
counties have recorded the following population gains: Los
Angeles
+718,303; Orange + 234,789; Riverside + 511,269; San Bernardino +
317,124; San Diego + 283,611; and Ventura + 67,945. The six
counties’
total increase of 2,133,040 new residents accounted for 58.0% of the
state’s total 2000-2007 population increase of 3,676,227 people.
(Jack
Kyser)
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